Covid 19 incident rates at the University of Northampton: a preliminary analysis

Nick Allen¹, Becky Bradshaw² and Nick Petford³

6 min readDec 18, 2020

Introduction

As the University of Northampton reaches the end of its autumn term and 2020, it is timely to reflect on the University’s responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, its impact on operations and the impact on the town and County. Earlier this year, the University produced a report outlining how we responded to the pandemic and supported our community¹. In preparing for the September 2020 term start, the University was obliged to consider how best to keep its students, staff and other campus users safe given our ongoing commitment to (limited) face-to-face teaching.

Much has been said about this issue² ³ but the driver continues to be the positive mental health benefits of engaging students, many of whom are living away from home for the first time, in engaging in scheduled learning and teaching activities, the building of cohort identity necessary for continuation and success and the positive financial contribution students make to towns and cities affected by the pandemic.

Not surprisingly, as the academic term progressed, an increase in positive diagnoses amongst student populations in city-based campuses including Newcastle, Manchester and Sheffield drew attention and some criticism⁴. However, the picture elsewhere was mixed. Recently, the University of Portsmouth released data showing low numbers of positive diagnoses following the roll-out of asymptomatic texting in Universities during late November and early December⁵.

Now that the first round of asymptomatic testing has finished, there is an opportunity to pause and reflect on the data gathered by the University to date, both for comparison with the sector, but more immediately Northamptonshire (currently Tier 2). Given the unchallenged assumption that COVID-19 was rife in the student body, and the associated risk of large-scale transmission to University staff, we were interested to test this idea using our data. We were also keen to find out to what extent the student population contributed to caseloads across the county more generally. The results may surprise you.

Northamptonshire data

Northamptonshire County Council has been providing detailed analysis of COVID-19 positive diagnoses as part of its weekly press conference in which the University of Northampton has participated⁶. As of 6 December 2020 (end of week 49), Northamptonshire had a total number of 15,538 positive diagnoses. From 13 April 2020 (week 16), there were noticeable increases in weeks commencing 27 April 2020 (week 18) to 25 May 2020 (week 22), week commencing 10 August 2020 (week 33, driven largely by the outbreak at Greencore UK Northampton factory). A more noticeable overall increase in diagnoses from week 50 (5 October) to early December 2020 is shown in Fig. 1. A summary of mortality data in Northamptonshire including a provisional SEIR model for disease spread can be found here.

University of Northampton

The University has been monitoring symptomatic individuals and positive diagnoses since the World Health Organisation declared the coronavirus a pandemic on 11 March 2020. Since the start of the University term in September 2020 and the return of students to campus, further information has been provided to supplement information shared by NHS Test and Trace and to ensure students are supported to isolate if they are diagnosed positive, are symptomatic or have come into contact with an individual diagnosed positive.⁷ In addition, the University has been required to submit daily reports to its regulator, the Office for Students, on positive diagnoses amongst staff and students. Figures relating to students are included in this analysis.

Analysis: polymerise chain reaction (PCR) testing

Fig. 1 is a summary of weekly data of positive COVID-19 cases from 21 September 2020 (week 39) to week commencing 30 November 2020 (week 49). Diagnoses are shown for Northamptonshire (red line) and the University of Northampton (blue line), over the same time period. While the overall trend is similar, the time averaged case load in Northamptonshire (956) is over 70 times higher than for University students (13). The increase and levelling out of positive diagnoses in Northamptonshire is not mirrored in the tested student body, where rates have been declining since week 47 to below 10 and are currently less than five.

Fig. 1. Comparison of positive CV19 cases in Northamptonshire and the University of Northampton (UoN) (note log₁₀ scale).

Fig. 2 shows the cumulative number of positive diagnoses in Northamptonshire and the University of Northampton. The time averaged contributing percentage of student cases to the overall number in the County is just 2%. Put another way, some 98% of all positive reported cases are in the population outside the student body. We can also look at the case rate per 100,000 population. In Northampton, arguably a fairer comparison as residential students reside predominantly in the town, since October this rate has varied between 290 and 150 per 100,000. Over the same period, the extrapolated rate in UoN students ranges from 0.1 to about 4 per 100,000. Even making allowances for significant errors in testing (false negatives and positives), the University rate is lower by a factor of about 50, than in the community at large.

Fig. 2. Comparison of weekly cumulative number of positive cases in the University (blue line) and in Northamptonshire (red). The blue dashed line shows the weekly percentage contribution (maximum 3%) by University of Northampton (UoN) students to the total county case load (right hand axis).

Asymptomatic Testing: Lateral Flow Device (LFD)

From Monday 30 November to Wednesday 9 December 2020, the University undertook asymptomatic testing of students using lateral flow devices (LFDs) as part of the roll-out plan for students to travel home safely for Christmas⁸.

During this period, the University conducted 1,717 tests with 12 individuals found to be positive, representing 0.58% of tests conducted. While the LFD test was voluntary and differs technically from PCR both in terms of accuracy and margin of error, the data support the conclusions from PCR tests that the incidence rate amongst the student body is extremely low. This must in part be testimony to the responsible attitude of the student pool and the safety measure put in place at the start of term by the University and partners in Public Health England. It is pleasing to see this good work and careful student attitude acknowledged by Public Health officials in Northamptonshire. Students returning in January 2021 will also be tested using LFD⁹, providing additional data sets for benchmarking.

Concluding Remarks

The above analysis shows that, based on the available data, Northampton’s students did not contribute in any sizeable way to the increase in positive diagnoses in Northamptonshire since the late summer. Further analysis at Northampton borough level will help refine the data set at a more granular level.

It is pleasing to report that University of Northampton students have in the very large part kept themselves, their peers and the wider community safe. We aim to continue with our super supportive measures into the new year.